Short-term risk prediction after major lower limb amputation: PERCEIVE study.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy with which healthcare professionals (HCPs) and risk prediction tools predict outcomes after major lower limb amputation (MLLA) is uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of predicting short-term (30 days after MLLA) mortality, morbidity, and revisional surgery. METHODS: The PERCEIVE (PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcomE following major lower limb amputation: a collaboratIVE) study was launched on 1 October 2020. It was an international multicentre study, including adults undergoing MLLA for complications of peripheral arterial disease and/or diabetes. Preoperative predictions of 30-day mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision by surgeons and anaesthetists were recorded. Probabilities from relevant risk prediction tools were calculated. Evaluation of accuracy included measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. RESULTS: Some 537 patients were included. HCPs had acceptable discrimination in predicting mortality (931 predictions; C-statistic 0.758) and MLLA revision (565 predictions; C-statistic 0.756), but were poor at predicting morbidity (980 predictions; C-statistic 0.616). They overpredicted the risk of all outcomes. All except three risk prediction tools had worse discrimination than HCPs for predicting mortality (C-statistics 0.789, 0.774, and 0.773); two of these significantly overestimated the risk compared with HCPs. SORT version 2 (the only tool incorporating HCP predictions) demonstrated better calibration and overall performance (Brier score 0.082) than HCPs. Tools predicting morbidity and MLLA revision had poor discrimination (C-statistics 0.520 and 0.679). CONCLUSION: Clinicians predicted mortality and MLLA revision well, but predicted morbidity poorly. They overestimated the risk of mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision. Most short-term risk prediction tools had poorer discrimination or calibration than HCPs. The best method of predicting mortality was a statistical tool that incorporated HCP estimation.

Differential impacts of economic and demographic variables on substance use patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic crisis has provided a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of economic shifts on substance use. Existing literature on this relationship is limited and conflicting, warranting further exploration.Objective: This study aimed to identify relationships between socioeconomic status (SES), demographic variables, and substance use patterns before and after government-mandated business closures due to COVID-19.Methods: Participants were recruited based on self-reported substance use through Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk). Qualifying participants (N = 315, 43% female, mean age = 35.35) reported their substance use and SES for two-week periods before and after pandemic-related business closures. Regression models analyzed relationships between substance use and study variables.Results: Regression models found that, during COVID-19 closures, greater financial strain predicted decreased benzodiazepine (ß = -1.12) and tobacco (ß = 1.59) use. Additionally, certain predictor variables (e.g., participants' age [ß = 1.22], race [ß = -4.43], psychiatric disorders including ADHD [ß = -2.73] and anxiety [ß = 1.53], and concomitant substance use [ß = 3.38]) predicted changes in substance use patterns; however, the directionality of these associations varied across substances.Conclusion: Specific substance use patterns were significantly and differentially impacted by economic strain, psychiatric diagnoses, and concomitant substance use. These results can help direct harm reduction efforts toward populations at greatest risk of harmful substance use following the pandemic.

Co-design of a digital dietary intervention for adults at risk of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Co-design has the potential to create interventions that lead to sustainable health behaviour change. Evidence suggests application of co-design in various health domains has been growing; however, few public-facing digital interventions have been co-designed to specifically address the needs of adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aims to: (1) co-design, with key stakeholders, a digital dietary intervention to promote health behaviour change among adults at risk of T2D, and (2) evaluate the co-design process involved in developing the intervention prototype. METHODS: The co-design study was based on a partnership between nutrition researchers and designers experienced in co-design for health. Potential end-users (patients and health professionals) were recruited from an earlier stage of the study. Three online workshops were conducted to develop and review prototypes of an app for people at risk of T2D. Themes were inductively defined and aligned with persuasive design (PD) principles used to inform ideal app features and characteristics. RESULTS: Participants were predominantly female (range 58-100%), aged 38 to 63 years (median age = 59 years), consisting of a total of 20 end-users and four experts. Participants expressed the need for information from credible sources and to provide effective strategies to overcome social and environmental influences on eating behaviours. Preferred app features included tailoring to the individual's unique characteristics, ability to track and monitor dietary behaviour, and tools to facilitate controlled social connectivity. Relevant persuasive design principles included social support, reduction (reducing effort needed to reach target behaviour), tunnelling (guiding users through a process that leads to target behaviour), praise, rewards, and self-monitoring. The most preferred prototype was the Choices concept, which focusses on the users' journey of health behaviour change and recognises progress, successes, and failures in a supportive and encouraging manner. The workshops were rated successful, and feedback was positive. CONCLUSIONS: The study's co-design methods were successful in developing a functionally appealing and relevant digital health promotion intervention. Continuous engagement with stakeholders such as designers and end-users is needed to further develop a working prototype for testing.

SARS-CoV-2 Innate Effector Associations and Viral Load in Early Nasopharyngeal Infection.

To examine innate immune responses in early SARS-CoV-2 infection that may change clinical outcomes, we compared nasopharyngeal swab data from 20 virus-positive and 20 virus-negative individuals. Multiple innate immune-related and ACE-2 transcripts increased with infection and were strongly associated with increasing viral load. We found widespread discrepancies between transcription and translation. Interferon proteins were unchanged or decreased in infected samples suggesting virally-induced shut-off of host anti-viral protein responses. However, IP-10 and several interferon-stimulated gene proteins increased with viral load. Older age was associated with modifications of some effects. Our findings may characterize the disrupted immune landscape of early disease.

Preventive effects of Pycnogenol® on cardiovascular risk factors (including endothelial function) and microcirculation in subjects recovering from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this open supplement study was to evaluate the effects of Pycnogenol® in comparison with controls on symptoms of post-COVID-19 syndrome and in improving endothelial function, microcirculation, inflammatory markers and oxidative stress over 3 months in symptomatic subjects recovering from COVID-19. METHODS: Sixty subjects recovering from symptomatic COVID-19 were included. One group of 30 followed a standard recovery management while 30 comparable subjects received a supplement of 150 mg Pycnogenol® daily (in 3 doses of 50 mg) in addition to standard management. RESULTS: Two groups of selected subjects were comparable at baseline. The groups progressively improved both with the SM (standard management) and with the SM in combination with the supplement. Patients, supplemented with Pycnogenol® showed significantly better improvement compared to the control group patients. No side effects from the supplementation were observed; tolerability was optimal. The progressive evolution over time was visible in all target measurements. Physiological tests: endothelial function, low in all subjects at inclusion was assessed by flow mediated dilation (FMD) and finger reactive hyperemia in the microcirculation (laser Doppler measurements) after the release of an occluding suprasystolic cuff. It was significantly improved in the Pycnogenol® group after one month and after 3 months (P<0.05 vs. controls). The rate of ankle swelling (RAS) by strain gauge decreased significantly in the supplemented group (P<0.05) in comparison with controls showing an improvement of the capillary filtration rate. At inclusion, the kidney cortical flow velocity indicated a decrease in perfusion (lower systolic and diastolic flow velocity) in all patients. Kidney cortical flow velocity increased significantly with the supplement (P<0.05) in comparison with controls with improvement in systolic velocity and in diastolic component. High sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) and Il-6 plasma levels decreased progressively over 3 months with a significant more pronounced decrease in the supplement group (P<0.05). The number of patients with normal plasma IL-6 levels at the end of the study was higher (P<0.05) with the supplement. ESR followed the same pattern with a progressive and a more significant decrease in the supplemented subjects (P<0.02). Oxidative stress decreased significantly in the supplemented group (P<0.05) compared with the control group. Systolic blood pressure was significantly lower in the supplemented group (P<0.05) at the end of the study. Finally, the scores of Quality-of-life, mood and fatigue questionnaire and the Karnofsky Scale Performance Index significantly improved in the supplement group (P<0.05) compared to controls after 1 and 3 months. All other blood parameters (including platelets and clotting factors) were within normal values at the end of the study. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, Pycnogenol® may offer a significant option for managing some of the signs and symptoms associated with post-COVID-19 syndrome. This pilot evaluation offers some potential rationale for the use of Pycnogenol® in this condition that will have significant importance in the coming years.

SARS-CoV-2 innate effector associations and viral load in early nasopharyngeal infection.

COVID-19 causes severe disease with poor outcomes. We tested the hypothesis that early SARS-CoV-2 viral infection disrupts innate immune responses. These changes may be important for understanding subsequent clinical outcomes. We obtained residual nasopharyngeal swab samples from individuals who requested COVID-19 testing for symptoms at drive-through COVID-19 clinical testing sites operated by the University of Utah. We applied multiplex immunoassays, real-time polymerase chain reaction assays and quantitative proteomics to 20 virus-positive and 20 virus-negative samples. ACE-2 transcripts increased with infection (OR =17.4, 95% CI [CI] =4.78-63.8) and increasing viral N1 protein transcript load (OR =1.16, CI =1.10-1.23). Transcripts for two interferons (IFN) were elevated, IFN-λ1 (OR =71, CI =7.07-713) and IFN-λ2 (OR =40.2, CI =3.86-419), and closely associated with viral N1 transcripts (OR =1.35, CI =1.23-1.49 and OR =1.33 CI =1.20-1.47, respectively). Only transcripts for IP-10 were increased among systemic inflammatory cytokines that we examined (OR =131, CI =1.01-2620). We found widespread discrepancies between transcription and translation. IFN proteins were unchanged or decreased in infected samples (IFN-γ OR =0.90 CI =0.33-0.79, IFN-λ2,3 OR =0.60 CI =0.48-0.74) suggesting viral-induced shut-off of host antiviral protein responses. However, proteins for IP-10 (OR =3.74 CI =2.07-6.77) and several interferon-stimulated genes (ISG) increased with viral load (BST-1 OR =25.1, CI =3.33-188; IFIT1 OR =19.5, CI =4.25-89.2; IFIT3 OR =245, CI =15-4020; MX-1 OR =3.33, CI =1.44-7.70). Older age was associated with substantial modifications of some effects. Ambulatory symptomatic patients had an innate immune response with SARS-CoV-2 infection characterized by elevated IFN, proinflammatory cytokine and ISG transcripts, but there is evidence of a viral-induced host shut-off of antiviral responses. Our findings may characterize the disrupted immune landscape common in patients with early disease.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Contamination on Food Plant Surfaces as Determined by Environmental Monitoring.

ABSTRACT: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has presented new challenges to food manufacturers. During the early phase of the pandemic, several large outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in food manufacturing plants resulting in deaths and economic loss, with approximately 15% of personnel diagnosed as asymptomatic for COVID-19. Spread by asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals has been implicated in large outbreaks of COVID-19. In March 2020, we assisted in implementation of environmental monitoring programs for SARS-CoV-2 in zones 3 and 4 of 116 food production facilities. All participating facilities had already implemented measures to prevent symptomatic personnel from coming to work. During the study period, from 17 March to 3 September 2020, 1.23% of the 22,643 environmental samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that infected individuals were actively shedding virus. Virus contamination was commonly found on frequently touched surfaces such as doorknobs, handles, table surfaces, and sanitizer dispensers. Most processing plants managed to control their environmental contamination when they became aware of the positive findings. Comparisons of positive test results for plant personnel and environmental surfaces in one plant revealed a close correlation. Our work illustrates that environmental monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 can be used as a surrogate for identifying the presence of asymptomatic and presymptomatic personnel in workplaces and may aid in controlling infection spread.

Cardiac procedural deferral during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

We aimed to examine factors impacting variability in cardiac procedural deferral during the COVID-19 pandemic and assess cardiologists' perspectives regarding its implications. Unprecedented cardiac procedural deferral was implemented nationwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. A web-based survey was administered by Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions and the American College of Cardiology Interventional Council to cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL) directors and interventional cardiologists across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among 414 total responses, 48 states and 360 unique cardiac catheterization laboratories were represented, with mean inpatient COVID-19 burden 16.4 ± 21.9%. There was a spectrum of deferral by procedure type, varying by both severity of COVID-19 burden and procedural urgency (p < .001). Percutaneous coronary intervention volumes dropped by 55% (p < .0001) and transcatheter aortic valve replacement volumes dropped by 64% (p = .004), with cardiologists reporting an increase in late presenting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions and deaths among patients waiting for transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Almost 1/3 of catheterization laboratories had at least one interventionalist testing positive for COVID-19. Salary reductions did not influence procedural deferral or speed of reinstituting normal volumes. Pandemic preparedness improved significantly over time, with the most pressing current problems focused on inadequate testing and staff health risks. During the COVID-19 pandemic, cardiac procedural deferrals were associated with procedural urgency and severity of hospital COVID-19 burden. Yet patients did not appear to be similarly influenced, with cardiologists reporting increases in late presenting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions independent of local COVID-19 burden. The safety and importance of seeking healthcare during this pandemic deserves emphasis.

A Proposed Process for Risk Mitigation During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Recent executive orders have led some applied behavior analysis (ABA) providers to interpret themselves as "essential personnel" during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we argue against a blanket interpretation that being labeled "essential personnel" means that all in-person ABA services for all clients should continue during the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe this argument holds even if ABA providers are not in a jurisdiction currently under an active shelter-at-home or related order. First, we provide a brief description of risks associated with continued in-person ABA service delivery, as well as risks associated with the temporary suspension of services or the transition to remote ABA service delivery. For many clients, continued in-person service delivery carries a significant risk of severe harm to the client, family and caregivers, staff, and a currently overburdened health care system. In these situations, ABA providers should temporarily suspend services or transition to telehealth or other forms of remote service delivery until information from federal, state, and local health care experts deems in-person contact safe. In rare cases, temporary suspension of services or a transition to remote service delivery may place the client or others at risk of significant harm. In these situations, in-person services should likely continue, and ongoing assessment and risk mitigation are essential.

Alarm bells ring for patient data and privacy in the covid-19 goldrush

Patient data are being used on an unprecedented scale by governments and healthcare bodies to stop the pandemic in its tracks. But what of the long term effects of accessing such sensitive information, asks David Cox Among the few success stories of the covid-19 pandemic has been how South Korea remarkably stopped its outbreak at just under 11 000 cases and with no lockdown. Its mass testing has been lauded, but equally key was extensive tracing—and surveillance—of its citizens that would prove uncomfortable in other nations. Korea’s containment is in part thanks to a sophisticated network of GPS trackers linked to people’s smartphones, as well as access to electronic records such as credit card purchases that allowed the tracking and tracing of every individual’s movements, right down to what buses they rode or shops they visited. The system issues alerts to the public, phones buzzing whenever an infectious person is in the area or a citizen has crossed the path of someone who has tested positive, urging them to get tested themselves and to self-isolate.1 The government even started issuing tracking wristbands to stop people dodging quarantine by leaving their phones at home.2 In Asia, bad memories of the SARS, H1N1, and MERS outbreaks have influenced public perspectives on how the government uses and shares their data. “The social shock of MERS in Korea was intense because the Middle East is quite a distant place psychologically as well as geographically,” says Youngkee Ju, who researches the dynamics of risk perception at Hallym University in Chuncheon, South Korea. Ju said that, in one unpublished survey his team conducted between February and April 2020, 68.2% of the respondents preferred maintaining the current level of information sharing even if it sacrificed individual right to privacy. A similar trend was seen in a …